Just as Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid and San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan are studying extensive scouting reports ahead of Super Bowl LVIII in order to gain an edge, Big Game bettors should be studying up on the records and tendencies of both teams before locking in their wagers as well.
More people than ever are expected to bet a record amount on this year’s Super Bowl, so let’s take a minute to review the betting profiles of the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs and 49ers, who are aiming to win their first Lombardi Trophy since the ‘90s.
Kansas City Chiefs
Regular Season Record: 11–6, Finished First in AFC West
Regular Season ATS Record: 9–7–1
Regular Season O/U Record: 5–12
Postseason Record: 3–0 (27-7 W vs. Dolphins, 27–24 W vs. Bills, 17–10 W vs. Ravens)
Postseason ATS Record: 3–0
Postseason O/U Record: 1–2
The Chiefs are back in the Big Game for the fourth time in five years. Of those almost annual appearances, this year’s run seemed the most improbable, as Kansas City finished with its worst record with Patrick Mahomes under center and had the fifth-best odds to win it all when the playoffs began. But behind a dominant defense and the mind-meld between Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs are on the verge of adding another Lombardi to their trophy case.
You’ve probably heard the stat by now, but it bears repeating with the 49ers favored by 1.5: Mahomes is 11–1–1 against the spread as an underdog in his career and 10–3 straight up. That sterling record includes the AFC championship win over the Ravens in Baltimore, the divisional round victory against the Bills in Buffalo and last year’s Super Bowl triumph over the Eagles.
After six consecutive seasons of finishing no worse than sixth in points per game, Kansas City came in at 15th in the regular season (21.8). But their defense, which finished second in both points (17.3) and yards (289.8) allowed, was by far the best of the Mahomes era. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has taken it up a notch in the playoffs, limiting opponents to just 13.7 points and 209.7 yards per game.
The Chiefs are not engaging in — or winning — any shootouts. Before the Bills game they were 0–4 straight up when allowing 21 or more points and they tied for the highest under rate in the NFL in the regular season. That’s continued into the postseason where the over has hit just once in three games. The 47.5-point over/under in the Super Bowl is the highest in a Kansas City game since Week 14. The under is 7–1 in games with a total of 47 points or higher and the one over was in Week 3 against the Bears, when the Chiefs scored a season-high 41 points.
Kansas City, which was spotty against the spread for much of the year, has now covered in five straight games. Reid and Mahomes know how to win in January and they are 2–1 together in February on the game’s biggest stage — which, of course, includes their first ring at the 49ers’ expense back in 2020.
