Even with NIL deals keeping stars in college longer than they otherwise might have stuck around, men’s college basketball is facing a pretty significant talent drain from last season. The main crux is the end of the COVID year. Essentially, two full classes (seniors and super-seniors) ran out of eligibility this spring, including many of the sport’s best players. Who are some rising stars who could fill that void and play huge roles for some of the best teams in the sport? Here’s a look at 10 potential breakout candidates to monitor in the 2025–26 season.
Tarris Reed Jr., UConn
We often see transfers make major strides in their second year at their new program, with former UConn star point guard Tristen Newton a prime example of the phenomenon. Reed could be the next after exceeding expectations last season in a platoon role and now shouldering more responsibilities in 2025–26. Reed’s a force around the rim at both ends, a dominant rebounder and efficient post scorer who will be a load to handle for Big East frontcourts. He topped 24 minutes in a game just seven times last season, and in those seven games scored 20-plus points four times and had 10-plus rebounds five times. Averaging a double-double might be too big an ask, but expect him to take a big leap into one of the most productive centers in the country.
Flory Bidunga, Kansas
The lack of national buzz around Bidunga feels misguided given his projected role, pedigree and early production as a freshman at Kansas. A former five-star recruit, Bidunga bided his time behind Hunter Dickinson a year ago but was highly effective in his limited minutes. He shot nearly 70% from the field, posted an eye-popping 10.8% block rate and flashed his elite athleticism on both ends of the floor. He’s the unquestioned starter at center and will have the luxury of playing with what might be the best guard in the sport in star freshman Darryn Peterson, who’s an impressive playmaker to go with his scoring exploits. The Jayhawks will go as far as Peterson takes them, but keeping Bidunga after a brief portal foray was huge. The sophomore big man will be a huge part of whether Kansas bounces back after a down 2024–25.
Nolan Winter, Wisconsin
Winter was a key part of Wisconsin’s offensive surge in 2024–25, with his inside-out offensive game putting defenses in a bind while splitting time at the four and five. With Steven Crowl and Carter Gilmore graduating, more pressure will be on Winter for consistent production, but the junior has more than enough talent to take on the increased load. He ranked in the top 15 in Big Ten play a year ago in offensive rating and both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. He could make another jump in a program that has been as good with developing bigs as any in the sport over the last two decades.
Royce Parham, Marquette
Breakout picks are clearer at Marquette than just about anywhere given Shaka Smart’s unwillingness to dip into the transfer portal. With Kam Jones, David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell and their combined 44 points per game graduating, there’s a huge opportunity for multiple young players to explode. Parham is the easiest bet, a talented versatile forward who showed serious flashes a year ago while playing his entire freshman season at 18 years old. He’s effective at stretching the floor, showcased the ability to attack closeouts and has the athleticism to guard multiple positions in Smart’s aggressive defensive system. Don’t be surprised if Parham doubles or even triples last season’s 5.1 points and 2.2 rebounds per game.
Coen Carr, Michigan State
No player in college basketball produces more highlight-reel plays per minute than Carr, a freakish athlete who can frequently be found soaring well above the rim. With Michigan State’s top three scorers from a year ago departing, it’s time for Carr to take the next step from super-sub to star. It’s unlikely he’ll ever be a plus three-point shooter (no matter how enticing offseason workout highlights may look), but Carr simply becoming enough of a threat to force defenses to not ignore him on the perimeter would be game-changing for his full offensive repertoire.
Karter Knox, Arkansas
Knox finished his freshman season at Arkansas on a high, scoring 15 points in the Hogs’ upset win over St. John’s and 20 in the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech. The powerful wing has three-level scoring potential and should be a key part of an Arkansas team that expects to challenge for an SEC championship in 2025–26. The biggest thing that might hinder his production is the presence of other high-usage guards like fellow returner D.J. Wagner and top freshmen Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas.
David Punch, TCU
Punch was a bright spot on a TCU team that never put things together in 2024–25, starting 27 games as an 18-year-old in one of the most rough-and-tumble leagues in the sport. While not a significant threat from beyond the arc, Punch is a load to deal with around the bucket. And perhaps his most valuable skill is on the defensive end, where he has the potential to be one of the best defenders in the Big 12 this season. He possesses highly impressive timing as a rim protector, moves his feet well on the perimeter against smaller defenders and plays with impressive physicality against more imposing foes.
Terrance Arceneaux, NC State
Arceneaux has been on NBA radars since dominating the EYBL circuit as a top prep prospect, but never quite put things together in three seasons at Houston. A fresh start could be just what the doctor ordered, and Arceneaux should have plenty of opportunities to shine in Will Wade’s offense. Texas Tech transfer Darrion Williams profiles as the Pack’s likely leading scorer, but Arceneaux could easily be the second option offensively. His experience playing for last season’s national runner-up should be invaluable for a team with so many new faces.
Jacob Cofie, USC
Cofie was in far from the ideal environment last season, playing for an interim coach in Ron Sanchez after Tony Bennett surprisingly retired before the season and on a poorly constructed team that never found a clear identity. In spite of that, he showed off why he’s one of the highest-upside young frontcourt players in the country. He’s a fluid athlete at 6' 10" with the coordination to catch and finish, put the ball on the floor and hit the occasional pick-and-pop three. USC’s frontcourt is a bit crowded, but it’d be surprising if he doesn’t carve out a big role in a system that suits him far better than Virginia’s did.
Julius Halaifonua, Georgetown
Being a breakout guy is often as much about opportunity as it is talent, and few players on this list have a clearer path to a big breakthrough than Halaifonua. The New Zealand native suffered a season-ending injury early last season but has the skill set to be a starting-caliber Big East center, with elite size, soft touch and impressive feel for the game. He put up a strong showing at the FIBA U19 World Cup this summer and could continue that momentum into his second season with the Hoyas.
