Jay Kornegay hoped the Dallas Cowboys weren’t scheduled for any more prime-time games after seeing how much money came in support of the Washington Commanders last week.
“I haven’t really looked at the schedule down the road, but I’m hoping that they’re not on any more Monday or Thursday games,” says Kornegay, who has worked at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas for the past 20 years. “Wait, they are going to be on Thanksgiving. Oh, geez. I forgot about that.”
Kornegay had no reason to believe the Cowboys were going to bail out the Westgate SuperBook after they failed to cover in five consecutive games before facing the Commanders in Week 12. But then Kornegay got somewhat of a retirement gift after the Cowboys pulled off the upset over the Commanders to win one for the house. Sharps and public bettors were making plenty of money betting against the Cowboys before the shocking win.
Kornegay, one of the most influential figures in the Las Vegas race and sportsbook industry over the past four decades, announced his retirement last week and will no longer be the vice president of operations at the Westgate Superbook. But Kornegay was kind enough to share his early thoughts on the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving game after realizing last week that they’re playing the New York Giants in the Thanksgiving prime-time spot.
“I’m just thankful that the Cowboys aren’t playing a contender because it would be pretty lopsided if they were playing someone like Kansas City or Baltimore,” says Kornegay, who will now contribute on the marketing side for the Westgate SuperBook, but plans to continue tracking the numbers and promoting the sportsbook in media interviews. “We’re very thankful that they’re playing the Giants because the public is going to look at that game and they’re not going to know what to do with it.”
Since Kornegay made those comments last week, plenty has changed, so I decided to bother him in the early stages of retirement. Last week, the Cowboys were laying 2.5 points against the Giants, but the line jumped to -4 at the Westgate Superbook after the Cowboys beat the Commanders and the Giants were blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, according to Kornegay. Some sharp money rolled in on the Giants after it went to four points, bringing the line down to -3.5 as of Tuesday evening.
“We expect most will be playing the Cowboys and the line will be driven back up to -4,” Kornegay said in a text Tuesday.
After weeks of needing the Cowboys to cover, the sportsbooks now need them to lose to the spread, but the Giants haven’t been much help to anybody most of this season. Daniel Jones is a free agent, Malik Nabers called the team soft, coach Brian Daboll is on the hot seat and veteran players are questioning teammates’ efforts on game day.
Despite how messy the Giants have been, following public money is rarely a good idea. Maybe the Giants are due for a bounce-back performance—or it’s better to avoid betting on this game.
Perhaps it’s better to focus on the last game of Thanksgiving. The Miami Dolphins could get some love from the sharps as -3.5 road underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. The Dolphins have covered in their past four games, including the 30–27 Week 9 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Miami covered as heavy home favorites against the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders the past two weeks and won outright as a road dog against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10.
Take a chance on the Dolphins because they appear to be a different team since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury. They’re not as reliant on the deep ball and have added a physical element by running the football more and utilizing tight end Jonnu Smith. That could pay off in the frigid conditions in Green Bay on Thanksgiving night.
As for the first game of the Thanksgiving tripleheader, it’s hard to bet against the Detroit Lions as they continue to cover spreads of more than seven points, including the past two weeks against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts. The Lions, who are 9–2 against the spread this season, are laying 10 points against the Chicago Bears on Thursday. It’s either take the Lions or pass because it’s often dangerous to bet on the team laying double-digit points in the NFL.
But the Lions seem determined to crush their opponents and make plenty of money for their supporters in the process.
Manzano’s NFL Week 13 Betting Tips
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Stick to the trend: Raiders (+12) at Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have failed as heavy favorites and appear content to win games in ugly fashion. I doubt the public will back the Raiders, but the trend of betting on the underdogs to cover against the back-to-back champions has paid well this season. The Raiders covered as +9 home underdogs against the Chiefs in Week 8. The Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Bills and Carolina Panthers have also covered vs. Kansas City the past five weeks.
Enticing Bet: Falcons (+2.5) vs. Chargers
This one scares me a bit because the Atlanta Falcons have been up and down most of this season. But the Los Angeles Chargers’ lack of depth and talent on both sides of the ball was exposed against the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens the past two weeks. If we get the good Kirk Cousins, they’re certainly capable of beating the Chargers at home after a bye week.
Moneyline Dog: Steelers (+130) at Bengals
I’ll take a chance on an angry Pittsburgh Steelers team coming off a loss to the Cleveland Browns to punch the Bengals in the mouth. That’s easier said than done because Ja’Marr Chase will probably generate a few explosive plays. If Russell Wilson can generate a few touchdown drives, the Steelers have the defense to get a handful of stops on Joe Burrow & Co. Let’s not forget the Bengals have many issues defensively, which could lead to a dynamic outing for wide receiver George Pickens.
Not So Risky: Colts (-2.5) at Patriots
The Patriots put up an embarrassing effort against the Dolphins last week. Now many are questioning whether first-year coach Jerod Mayo will be returning next season in New England. Take the team with less drama and don’t think twice about this one.
Stay Away: Rams (-2.5) at Saints
I won’t be surprised if the New Orleans Saints pull off the upset here. I’m just not convinced they’re a better team with interim coach Darren Rizzi just because of a two-game winning streak. The Rams have been inconsistent, but they did cover against the Patriots in Week 11, so they’re capable of beating the bad teams. I’m just not sure if the Saints are that bad. I’d rather stay away here because these Rams aren’t as good as last season with a 5–6 record and coming off a blowout home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Parlay: Ravens (-3) vs. Eagles; Panthers (+6) vs. Buccaneers; Seahawks (-2) at Jets
Here’s some advice: Try to avoid parlays. I’m not very good at them and they’re difficult to hit, but what the heck, here’s another attempt. I think the Ravens can score points on the Eagles’ stout defense. The Panthers have been clicking lately with coach Dave Canales and the return of Bryce Young. The Seattle Seahawks' much-improved defense could give Aaron Rodgers plenty of fits.
Survivor Pool: Chiefs (-625) vs. Raiders
From my conversations with Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa, the remaining survivor pool contestants have been waiting to use the Chiefs because the Thanksgiving slate and the Black Friday game count as a separate week. So I’ll pretend I’m still alive in the Circa’s popular $1,000-per-entry contest. The Chiefs better beat the Raiders or many survivor pool entries will go up in flames this week.
Best Over/Under Total: Browns-Broncos (over 42, -110)
Bo Nix and the Broncos have scored more than 29 points the past two weeks against the Raiders and Falcons. Expect Nix to continue producing touchdowns against the Browns. And Jameis Winston is coming off a sensational performance in the win vs. the Steelers. Also, the Browns’ receivers, such as Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, have played well with Winston.
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